Intelligence briefings
A light does not find the rocks.It makes them impossible to miss.
Written positions on how financial evidence should be found, tested, quantified and defended. No detection logic, thresholds or analytical methods are published.
Library
Ten briefings.
Reconciled is not the same as correct
Two systems can agree perfectly and still describe something that never happened.
Chain of custody belongs in financial work
Evidentiary discipline is standard in physical investigations and rare in financial ones. That gap is a liability.
Why sampling cannot find what you are looking for
A sample designed to measure a rate is usually incapable of reaching a concentrated exposure.
The cost of plausible explanations
Most anomalies have a reasonable explanation. The work is testing it rather than accepting it.
Exposure should be deterministic
If a number cannot be reproduced exactly by someone else, it is an opinion.
Contracts are evidence, not context
Entitlement questions are answered by the agreement in force on the date of service, not the agreement on file.
The language of a defensible finding
A finding should state what the evidence supports and nothing beyond it.
Where models help and where they must not decide
Language models are useful for extraction and drafting. They are unfit for calculation and signoff.
The impossible combined story
The strongest evidence is usually a combination that cannot be true, not a value that looks wrong.
Four questions a board should ask about any number
Traceability, population, method and limits. If any answer is missing, the number is not ready.