The ocean surface at night, moments before something breaks it

Method ยท 5 min read

The impossible combined story

The strongest evidence is usually a combination that cannot be true, not a value that looks wrong.

Look for contradiction, not outliers

Outlier hunting produces volume and little conviction. Contradiction produces few candidates and high conviction, because a combination that cannot exist does not need a threshold to justify it.

A payment released against an ended relationship, a credit issued against a charge never raised, a service billed outside its authorization: none of these require a judgement about what is unusual.

PERISCOPE briefings describe investigative principles. They do not disclose detection logic, thresholds, formulas, weighting or rules.

If the numbers have stopped agreeing with each other, that disagreement is evidence.

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