The ocean surface at night, moments before something breaks it

Quantification ยท 5 min read

Exposure should be deterministic

If a number cannot be reproduced exactly by someone else, it is an opinion.

Same inputs, same answer

Every exposure figure should state its inputs, its calculation version and its population. Run again with the same inputs, it should return the same value to the cent.

Estimates have a place, but they must be labelled as estimates and separated from confirmed exposure so that no reader has to guess which is which.

Double counting is the common failure

When several findings touch the same records, exposure inflates quietly. A duplicate exposure check across findings is not optional.

PERISCOPE briefings describe investigative principles. They do not disclose detection logic, thresholds, formulas, weighting or rules.

If the numbers have stopped agreeing with each other, that disagreement is evidence.

Request an examination